The Method of Scenario Planning
Scenario planning is a method to create and develop two or more plausible scenarios of what is POSSIBLE and / or CAN—other than SHOULD—happen in the future, which is presented in the form of descriptions or stories.
This method is used to help individuals, formal-informal figures, policymakers, and leaders understanding alternatives of the future and identify steps that can cause these things up.
This method, besides being able to help evaluate the extent of the impact and effectiveness of policies that have been created, can affect the possibilities of the future; also can help identifying and understanding the opportunities and potential threats in the future.
Other than common scenario planning procedures, IISA Assessment, Consultancy & Research Centre found a methodological stages, taking into account the technical-operational difficulties, in which the implications determine local content and local context of the preparation of a scenario.
The sequence of processes deliberately turns upside down without losing sight of the essence of data about to be dug, just to get a more sensible description. Data raid on symbol is precisely carried out initially in order to capture the focal concern as well as sketch of a scenario. Therefore, the symbol structure is deeply observed in the analysis. Furthermore, the logic and the paradigmatic foundation of inter-new driving forces relation are just dug to primarily test the meaning of symbol that appears.
In the implementation of this method, IISA Assessment, Consultancy & Research Centre combines quantitative and qualitative research methods (interview, cross-impact analysis, analysis of futuring wheel, data collection refining from the impact of foresight, and strategic conversation forum). Data processing procedures are implemented by process of symbol categorization and identification process of driving forces. Population and sample must meet considerations of principle, before determining population and sampling techniques. We are always grounded in reality and avoid (in Baudrillard terms) dilemma that crams desires, wishes or a marker, in order to simply congruent with reality, facts, events, and marks.
Through this method, we assist the arrangement of scenario planning that provides strategic orientation, tactical options and measures in a number of situations, which are useful for the preparation of research/studies either for communities, organizations, institutions, corporations, or government.